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| Li Zengwen, a development engineer at Changan Automobile, lifts his hands off the steering wheel as the car is on self-driving mode during a test drive |
By Jake Spring
BEIJING (Reuters) - In the
race to develop self-driving cars, the United States and Europe lead in
technology, but China is coming up fast in the outside lane with a regulatory
structure that could put it ahead in the popular adoption of autonomous cars on
its highways and city streets.
A draft roadmap for having
highway-ready, self-driving cars within 3-5 years and autonomous vehicles for
urban driving by 2025 could be unveiled as early as this year, said Li Keqiang,
an automotive engineering professor at Tsinghua University who chairs the
committee drafting the plan. The panel is backed by the powerful Ministry of
Industry and Information Technology.
The draft will set out
technical standards, including a common language for cars to communicate with
each other and infrastructure, and regulatory guidelines - a unified framework
that contrasts with a patchwork of state laws and standards in the United
States.
Without coordination, that
patchwork could hold back the development of self-driving cars in the U.S.,
David Strickland, a former safety chief for the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration, said at an event in Beijing this month.
China's top-down approach
could see it overtake the U.S. and Europe, where automakers have generally been
left to agree among themselves on industry standards. A push for self-driving
and electric cars also fits with Beijing's shift to an economy driven by
high-tech and consumer industries rather than heavy industry and low-end
manufacturing.
"If we can convince
the government that every company, every car on the road must use this (single
standard) ... then there is a chance China can beat the rest of the world"
to the widespread use of self-driving cars, said Li Yusheng, head of Chongqing
Changan Automobile's autonomous drive program.
China is ripe for the
advent of self-driving cars. It's the world's biggest autos market and is
blighted by choking air pollution, traffic congestion and often erratic
driving. More than 200,000 people die each year in road accidents, according to
World Health Organisation estimates.
As relative newcomers to
mass car ownership Chinese also tend not to share the West's love affair with
driving. In a 2015 World Economic Forum survey, 75 percent of Chinese said they
would likely ride in a self-driving car, versus half of Americans. Within 20
years, China will be the largest market for autonomous features, accounting for
at least a quarter of global demand, says Boston Consulting Group.
BIG AMBITIONS
The China draft would be
opened up for industry comment and input from a range of ministries, ultimately
going to the State Council, or cabinet, for approval.
At a most basic level, the
committee will define a 'self-driving' car and set a minimum level of
functionality, said Bai Jie, a professor at Tongji University who also sits on
the expert committee.
In other respects, China
plans to be more ambitious. It may adopt cellular data technology - already
used in many cars to access the Internet - for cars to communicate, rather than
the dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) standard used in the U.S. and
Europe, said Li, the panel chairman.
"The U.S., Europe and
Japan spent so much time developing DSRC, so they strongly recommend it for
China," Li said. "Here, we're just beginning so why not choose
advanced technology like LTE (Long Term Evolution wireless broadband
technology) or 5G?"
China's provisional
timeline would put it at least in line with, if not ahead, of others developing
self-driving cars.
By 2020, Toyota Motor aims
to market a car that can drive by itself on highways, and Mercedes, after two
decades of research, plans to launch a self-driving car, though drivers would
be required to take control in certain situations.
Chinese automakers
including SAIC Motor and Ford Motor's local partner Changan have internal
targets that match the likely draft roadmap, and are represented on the experts
committee, Li said, while foreign car makers are not.
SELF-DRIVE TRIP
To be sure, China has some
way to go to become a global pacesetter in autonomous driving.
Li, the committee chief,
said the panel was only now looking into legal issues around self-driving cars,
such as who is liable in any collision.
Li Shufu, chairman of
automaker Geely [GEELY.UL], has said China must revise its laws so the
manufacturer, not the driver, is held responsible for accidents when a car is
in self-drive mode. "If (our) legislation lags behind, self-driving cars
will be difficult to sell in China," he said.
"It's certainly
possible for the Chinese auto industry to make significant headway with
government backing, but there's still a lot going into developing that
technology, making sure it's safe, and that means a certain number of miles
driven," said Jeremy Carlson, an analyst at consultancy IHS Automotive.
Ahead of next week's
Beijing auto show, Changan took a couple of its prototype self-driving sedans
for a 2,000 km (1,243 mile) trip from its Chongqing headquarters to the Chinese
capital.
With a test engineer
behind the wheel, but with his hands in his lap, the automated system guided
the car along the highway at 80 km per hour, adjusting speed for traffic and
speed-limit signs, while keeping centered in its lane - roughly on par with the
self-drive capabilities of Tesla models already on the market.
Changan's Li said a
self-driving model should be on the market in 2-3 years, with the automaker
spending 5 billion yuan ($773 million) to further the technology by 2020. It is
also in talks with Internet giant Baidu on developing automated driving
technology.
"The intersection
between technology companies and automakers is the space to watch," said
Wang Yanmin, a professor at Beijing Normal University.
(Reporting by Jake Spring,
with additional reporting by Norihiko Shirouzu and Sue-lin Wong; Editing by Ian
Geoghegan)
