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Monday, April 23, 2018

The Future of the SUV -- Why are they so popular today?

The SUV (along with unitized body Crossover) is quickly becoming the vehicle of choice not only in the U.S. but China, Europe, and elsewhere in the world. No longer are passenger cars dominant in the marketplace, particularly if you also consider pick-up truck sales within the confines of the U.S. Last year about 1/3 of all vehicle sales were due to SUVs and Crossovers, and there are projections that more than 50% of all sales will be SUVs within the next five years.  It seems that all age groups are embracing this latest trend, and with it the love affair with the passenger car has been replaced with a sort of quirky attraction to a boxy, high and heavy “utilitarian tool” for enhanced mobility. Unlike passenger cars from the past, the SUV is much harder to love.  Many look pretty much alike, boxes with some edges. Aerodynamics has dictated general styles.  So distinctiveness is relegated to the brand symbol stamped into the front grill.

The SUV is popular to many Americans because it is so handy. It can carry dogs, people, lumber and home repair items, and golf clubs with relative comfort.  For older folks it is high off the ground and easier to get in and out. With all the new engine and transmission technologies these vehicles get acceptably good gas mileage, and usually are quite affordable when purchased. With interior quality now far better than it was 10 years ago, the SUV can be not only comfortable but aesthetically pleasing while sitting in the passenger seat or behind the wheel.  

Note that even German luxury makers BMW, Mercedes and Porsche thrive in terms of SUV sales. A decade ago who would have taught that these auto companies (and VW!) would have a substantial part of their business not in passenger cars but in SUVs or Crossovers!

In the U.S. size does matter.  We are generally a big people.  And now a high percentage of us are obese! So SUVs fit us physically. And we are growing older.

These cars are increasingly connected to the internet, and other wireless services, and so appeal to younger buyers. They do impart an aggressive stance, and that appeals to some people.  And at the top end of the price scale vehicles like Porsche Cayennes, Mecans, Escalades, convey status, although not on the level of a Ferrari, Maserati or Porsche 911.

I own a new Subaru Outback, and thus have joined the club. But I am not sold on these vehicles. As someone who was a child during the Golden Age of motor cars in the 1950s and 1960s, I still prefer lighter, smaller rides. With all the SUVs on the road I often have my field of vision blocked while driving my Porsche 911 by their ride height. Thus I can be frustrated. One can feel safer while driving SUVs, but that is often an illusion. They are prone to roll over, and an SUV driver can take additional risks because of the perception of being in a safer vehicle.

Will the SUV be here for the long run?  With electric vehicles on the horizon by 2030 as a significant market niche, I would say no, not in terms of current numbers. Once energy prices increase substantially, a correction will occur. Station wagons were once very popular items, and rarely do you see them on the road today. So were convertibles! 

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