Elisabeth Rosenthal, "Study: Americans
buying fewer cars," Dayton Daily News, June 30, 2013, p. A10.
Recent studies suggest that Americans are
buying fewer cars, driving less and getting fewer licenses as each year goes
by.
That has left researchers pondering a
fundamental question: Has America passed peak driving?
But America's love affair with it s vehicles
seems to be cooling. When adjusted for population growth, the number of miles
driven in the United States peaked in 2005 and dropped steadily thereafter,
according to an analysis by Doug Short of Advisor Perspectives, an investment
research company. As of April 2013, the
number of miles driven per person was nearly 9 percent below the peak and equal
to where the country was in January 1995. Part of the explanation certainly
lies in the recession, because cash strapped Americans could not afford new
cars, and the unemployed weren't going to work anyway. But by many measures,
the decrease in driving preceded the downturn and appears to be persisting now
that recovery is under way. The next few
years will be telling.
"What most intrigues me is that rates of
car ownership per household and per person started to come down two or there
years before the downturn," said Michael Sivak, who studies the trend and
is a research professor at the University of Michigan's Transportation Research
Institute. "I think something more fundamental is going on."
Companies like Ford and Mercedes are already
rebranding themselves "mobility" companies with a broader product range
beyond the personal vehicle.
"Different things ae converging which
suggest that we are witnessing a long-tem cultural shift," said Mimi
Sheller, a sociology professor at Drexel University…. She cites various
factors: The Internet makes telecommuting possible and allows people to feel
more connected without driving to meet friends. The renewal of center cities
has made suburbs less appealing and has drawn empty nesters back in. Likewise,
the rise in cell phones and car-pooling apps has facilitated more flexible
commuting arrangements, including the evolution of shared van services for
getting to work.
On top of that, city, state and federal
policies that for more than half a century
encouraged suburbanization and car use-- from mortgage lending to road building
-- are gradually being diluted or reversed. "They created what I call a
culture of automobility and arguably in the last 5 to 10 years that is dying
out., Sheeler said.
Demographic shifts in the driving population
suggest the trend may accelerate. There has been a large drop in the percentage
of 16-to39 year olds getting a license, while older people are likely to retain
their licenses as they age.
A study last year found that driving by young
people decreased 23 percent between 2001 and 2009. The Millennials don't value
cars and car ownership, they value technology -- they care about the devices
you own. The percentage of young drivers is inversely related to the
availability of the internet, Sivaks research found. Why spend an hour driving
to work when you could take the bus or train and be online?
Also from 2007 to 2011, the age group most
likely to buy a car shifted from the 35-44 age group to the 55-to-64 group.
So I am currently teaching a class of Meillennials, and asked them today if they prefer to communicate electronically or in person. The more I thought about it the more I began to think that if it is true that the Millennials do not prefer face-to-face interaction and instead want to text and email, the more I thought that can't be right. Except for very long distance issues. And indeed that is what my class told me. So this thesis about the internet and the inverse proportion to young drivers doesn't make sense, except maybe on the West Coast or where there are very high population densities and superb mass transit options.
More on this later!
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